Cite this article as: Adamu S. (2024). Analysis of the Implication of Fuel Subsidy Removal on Household Livelihood in Nigeria. Proceedings of International Conference on Rethinking Security through the lens of Humanities for Sustainable National Development Interdisciplinary Perspectives. Pp. 63-71.
ANALYSIS
OF THE IMPLICATION OF FUEL SUBSIDY REMOVAL ON HOUSEHOLD LIVELIHOOD IN NIGERIA
By
Sanusi
Adamu
Ph.D.
Candidate, Department of Political Science
Usman
Dan Fodio University Sokoto
Abstract: The political economy and the politics of fuel
subsidy removal is so interwoven that it created controversy and suspicion
among the elite and ordinary citizens. At his inauguration on May 29, 2023,
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, while being sworn-in, boldly informed the nation
that subsidy was gone. That singular statement eventually become a policy that
marked the end of so-called fuel subsidy. Since that dramatic declaration, the
socio-economic landscape of Nigeria radically changed for the worse. This study
is not meant to partake in the dubitability of the subsidy removal. The
objective is to conduct a preliminary impact analysis of the subsidy removal on
household livelihood. A quasi-experimental design is employed using a
particular area in Sokoto. The study therefore, argues that while the removal
of fuel subsidy was ill-conceived and ill-timed, but has caused untold hardship
on the masses and made their social life miserably and compounded their
wretched and pauperise objective conditions. Based on this the paper concludes
that both on short- and long-term fuel subsidy removal have adverse effect on
household, because the price of commodity would skyrocket significantly thereby
reducing the purchasing power of the citizens, thus creation social tensions
and insecurity.
Keywords: Analysis, Impact, Fuel Subsidy Removal, House-hold
Livelihood
Introduction
Governments of the countries over the world
initiate subsidy program, subsidy as a form of intervention by the government
globally reduces the cost of services and commodities to make it affordable for
the citizenry. For instance, the USA have fuel subsidy program, China
subsidized electricity for production and country like Turkey subsidized food.
The aim is to provide relief for the vast population of their citizens. Nigeria
in its demographic size is the most populous in Africa. With population approximately
over 200 million people. It posses 28 percent of Africa proven oil reserves,
second after Libya and it is the top producer of African crude oil, producing
1352 BBC!DC!IK in august, 2024 (http..//trading economic. Com 2024). At the
same time Nigeria share in world production remained almost constant at,
Nigeria ranks among the top 15 producers of oil in the world, (http..//www.worldmeters,
info oil 2024).
Nigeria started subsidizing its petroleum
industry in the (1970s) after the state owned company, the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation
(NNPC) now(NNPCL), had planned to unify the price of crude oil in accordance
with the global market, but the then incumbent President Olusegun Obasanjo said
average Nigerians would not be able to afford a gallon of petrol at the pump.
Instead, President Olusegun Obasanjo introduces subsidy plan to keep the price
of petrol low. Nigeria Extractive Industries Initiative, (NEITI,2022).
However, despite the significance of the
policy, the federal government later start selling the idea of fuel subsidy
removal to Nigerians, proclaiming and making people to understand and assume it
is beneficial to the society. The federal government pointed that it aimed at
generating additional revenue that would be used to improve infrastructure in
the country such as roads, schools, hospitals etc, rather than allowing such
huge revenue going to the hands of few elite in the country (Adekinju 2009). Nigerians
are looking at it differently as an attempt to usurp their meager resources, by
removing the only intervention that directly effect their lives and kept
generally house- hold essential needs affordable.
However, whether the subsidy is positive or
negative is typically normative judgement. As an economic intervention, subsidy
is inherently contrary to the market's demand. And they could be used as tools
of political and cooperate cronyism. Although, subsidies could be very
important to us, as it may affair to have direct effect on house-hold
livelihood in-terms of keeping cost of production very low. Many Nigerians were
impacted by the subsidy policy and for it to be more impactful it has to be
spread all over, and to exert effects that are demonstrably and environmentally
significance, with the proclaimed objective to alleviate high level of poverty,
the Nigerian government subsidized
private consumption of imported refined fuel to maintain a subsidized price at
the consumer's pump. The dollar value of the subsidy increases with the
increasing refined oil prices or increased import volumes, rising world fuel
prices has caused the subsidy to increase significantly over the recent years,
damaging the country's fiscal health and economy. Though, for the past 30
years, government have attempted to remove the fuel subsidy due to the damaging
fiscal impact (Adenikinju 2009), from a political economy perspective, subsidy
removal is difficult because it has impacts on a broad spectrum of Nigerian
house-holds livelihood. Despite, the fact that majority of the subsidy
benefiting wealthier households, lower and less volatile fuel prices are also
popular to all population segments. For these reason attempts to remove the
subsidy has always generated opposition from the consumers, moreover, there is
the presumption that any price increase would fuel inflation and reduce
economic welfare (Adenikinju 2009).
His argument is supported and evidently
clear by this singular declaration of president Bola Tinubu at his inaugural
speech that "subsidy has gone" followed by his action, this action
culminated to the rise in crimes and social biases alarmingly in the state due
to inflation, hardship, poverty and hunger occasioned by the subsidy removal.
Therefore, this research work intends to examine the impact of subsidy removal
on household and livelihood, and. It possible linkage to the organized crime in
Sokoto state.
FUEL SUBSIDY; A subsidy is
a form of financial aid or support extended to an economic sector or
institutions, business or individual generally with the aim of promoting
economic and social policies. It only exists because or when the government of
Nigeria decided to fix the prices of gasoline for consumers below the
international prices and uses government resources to pay for the differences.
although, commonly extended from government, the term subsidy could relate to
any type of support. For example, from Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) or
implicit subsidies, subsidies come in various forms including direct (cash
grants interest, free loans) and indirect tax breaks insurance, low interest
loan, depreciation write offs, rent rebates). Furthermore, they could be broad or narrow, legal or illegal,
ethical or unethical, the most common
forms of subsidies are those that
the producers or consumers, producer\production subsidies ensure producers are better off by supply market price support or payment to
packers of production, consumers \consumption subsidies commonly reduce the
price the price of goods and services to the consumer, for example, in Nigeria it was cheaper to buy petrol some
years back because of fuel subsidy (Nwadialo 2012).
In relation to fuel in Nigeria, it means
the financial aid granted to autonomous and fore most oil marketers by the
government for them to supply their products at a cheaper rate for the good of
the masses. This move is almost always aimed at the economy of the country,
providing social amenities for the people stabilizing the market, creating
employment opportunities and of course the assumption by the government that it
is capable of fighting occupation. The Nigeria extractive industries
transparency initiative (NEITI2012) notes that the issue of subsidy is not
alien to the nation’s blood stream because it existed during the military
regime when the four refineries of the nation could produce only little which
could not even satisfy the domestic need of the people.
Fuel subsidy removal can have significant
economic costs and alter the cost structure of other sectors of economy, such
as agriculture and fisheries, with the risk of nutritional crisis. While many
literatures show that fuel price subsidies are inefficient, it also
acknowledged that their removal would lead to considerable drop in real incomes
for poor households, with adverse consequences for poverty and inequality (Arze
del Granado, Cordy and Gillingham 2012; Rentschler 2016; Kpodar and liu 2022).
Subsidy removal could also lead to social tensions and precarious situation
necessarily leading to insecurity.
REASONS FOR REMOVAL OF FUEL SUBSIDY. The federal government recently removed petrol subsidy
and ushered in a regime of deregulation in the downstream sector of the
Nigeria's oil and gas industry. Though, the action may be in right direction if
carefully implemented but in Nigeria lack of political will and insincerity
make mockery of the deregulation, some of the reasons for the deregulation
includes;
a. Corruption:
Billions of dollars and euros have been
expended on keeping fuel subsidy. Expert said the process of subsidizing the
petroleum industry was corrupt and hugely inefficient. The claim was that it
does not alleviate the suffering of low incomes earners nor does it end the
problem of fuel scarcity. The Nigeria petroleum industry was enmeshed with high
level of corruption given inaccurate and unverifiable figure of subsidy
payments
b. Diversion and Smuggling
According to Kachikwu, ( April 2016), a
former senior official in the ministry of petroleum, a large volume of about 30
percent of petroleum products is diverted by corrupt senior government
officials, Kachikwu said these officials connive with marketers and transport
owners to divert already subsidized fuel from deports to neighboring west
African Countries including Cameroon, Chad, Togo, Niger and Benin. Nigeria's
economy relied on oil and inflation figures for the imported refined product,
government officials also connive with the importers and inflate figures,
sometimes by given a figure of an empty vessels that import fuel into the
country.
c. competition in the oil industry.
According to the Nigerian ministry of
petroleum, removing fuel subsidy will bring about more players and competition
in the industry which will lead to the sufficiency of the product in the
country
d. Foreign exchange crisis
Nigeria depends largely on importation of most of its goods and services, the Nigeria government determine how much foreign currencies private businesses receive to import fuel into the country. The refineries in the country are not functioning as such cannot provide the needed domestic demand of the petroleum product to fill in the gap hence, the country rely on importers to supply the product, these arise the need to provide the needed foreign currency for the importers and these currencies are not available enough the importers have to go to black marketers and got the needed currencies. This means fuel importers have to spend more local currency the naira on buying the dollar, these also put more burden on the Nigeria's currency. there by creating shortage of our currency and huge demand on foreign currency.
THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF SUBSIDY
Political economy is a term used for
studying production and trade and their reactions with law custom and
government as well as the distribution of national income and wealth. Political
economy originated from moral philosophy, originally political economy meant to
study the conditions under which production or consumption within limited
parameter were made and organized in a particular nation or state. Thus,
political economy of subsidy in Nigeria is meant to create more wealth and
affordable production for every homes and businesses through this policy.
Modern states pursue certain goals or welfare and wellbeing of their citizens,
to achieve these goals Nigerian unexceptionally introduces the policy of
subsidy in the country for it to harness the potential of human and material
resources God has blessed the country with for the development of the country.
However, the issue of subsidy has generated
a lot of debate among the scholars and citizens just as the intent fuel crisis
that have affect the economic activities in the Nigeria state and become a
common phenomenon. There is hardly any issue that draws the attention and
create more emotion across all strata of the Nigeria society than of oil
subsidy the problem of oil subsidy has led to a great debate in Nigeria
(Alwell, 2012).
Much as subsidy is an economic necessity,
the discussion over its impact on house- hold and desirability in Nigeria
remains unresolved because the government argues that withdrawing the subsidy
program would enable it to have more money, at the expense of the citizens who
contend that if there is subsidy removal they stand to benefit nothing from the
government. The position of the government for the removal of fuel subsidy in
Nigeria is based on the premise that it will use the money realized to provide
infrastructures such as education, transportation, goods roads, construction,
agriculture etc. (Alwell ,2012)
Nigeria is not a special case regarding its
refined fuel subsidy. Government, of several other countries across the world
do subsidies energies for their economic to strive spending billions of dollars
and various sector of their economy, which give their citizens leverage for
development. The united state of America, the European countries and even the
communist countries are not exceptional of this subsidy gesture to their
economy however, it is true fuel subsidy have benefited wealthier citizens than
the poor who consume relatively larger quantity of fuel than the poor but it is
undoubtedly clear that it benefited all the citizens and contributed to the
development of the Nigeria economy. The contributions of the subsidy to the
growth and development of Nigerian economy could be seen in terms of human
development and the industrial impaction to the economic variables responsible
for economic growth in Nigeria. the contribution of the policy could also be
analyzed in terms of its share of revenue generated in the country. The policy
contributed immensely in both foreign exchange reserve and government revenues
as a result of favorable and conducive environment for productions that
attracted many foreign direct investment (FDI), this singular action of the president
Bola Tinubu result in or create many burdens for the Nigeria economy.
FUEL SUBSIDY REGIME IN NIGERIA
The regimes of fuel subsidy in Nigeria can
be predated to the history of the fuel
price increase in Nigeria by successive
government from the military junta to
the civilian democratic elected
government in Nigeria specifically dates back to 1978 when the then military
government of Olusegun Obasanjo reviewed upward the pump price of fuel which
was at 8.4 kobo to 15.37 kobo. The concern was to generate enough money to run
the administration particularly when it was preparing for the 1979 democratic
elections and also to carter for the social needs of Nigerians (Bakare 2012).
In January 1982, the civilian regime of Alhaji Shehu Shagari also raised the
pump price to 20 kobo. Money realized from the increase was used by the members
of the regime to purchase property in foreign land such as the (USA, UK, SPAIN.
FRANCE and others) as against using same to put in place social services that
Nigerians badly needed then. The inept leadership of the NPN government and
high level of corruption of the administration led to its over throw
(Nwachukwu,2011).
There came the military junta of
General Ibrahim Babangida who also
increased the pump price of fuel to 39.50 kobo in march 1980, Babangida regime
was known for its insensitivity of fuel increase to 42 kobo, later 60 kobo per
liter in 1989, these increase came at the time the regime chose to adopt a home
grown cultural adjournment program (SAP) as against external borrowing. His
decision was greeted with massive protest by Nigerians. The economic down turn
coupled with the increase made life really unbearable and Nigerians reacted
angrily (Nwachukwu,2011). Furthermore, Babangida regime increase the pump price
to #5, which was later increase to #15 and was reduced by general Sani Abacha
in order to gain popularity and reduce the tension of mass protest that
followed the increment.
General Abdulsalami also did not spare
Nigerians with his brief transitional reign as a military ruler, the pains of
fuel pump price which was also witnessed sustained protest by the organized
labor and civil society organization (CSOS). It is necessary at this point to
say that it is on record only, the military junta of Buhari/Idiagbon and ummaru
Musa Yar'adua that Nigerians were spared the ordeal of price increase, others
before and after then inflicted enormous pains on Nigerians as a result of the increase
in fuel prices. This however, may be attributed to their brief tenure in
office.
General Obasanjo second coming as a
civilian president did not help matters,
he further unleashed reign of terror on Nigerians in his eight years in office, the nation witnessed several
rounds of fuel price increases, this continues until the coming of the
administration of Yar'adua who later reviewed it downward to #65 from the #70
that Obasanjo handover the power to him on assumption of office, this is how it
remains until the coming of president Goodluck Jonathan regime to outright
removal of fuel subsidy. Interestingly the then labor union president Adams
Oshiomole who led several fights against subsidy removal as a sitting governor
then, joined his fellow colleague and federal government to argue strongly for
the complete removal of fuel subsidy. President Goodluck Jonathan go on to
remove subsidy and his action was followed by mass protest by the Nigerian
labor congress (NLC), trade union congress of Nigeria, PENGASAN, civil society
organization, Academic staff union of universities (ASUU) and the generality of
Nigerians. The mass protest, push the government to quickly rescind on it
decision of an outright partial removal of subsidy and reduced the pump price.
On December 13,2015, president Buhari urge
Nigerians to prepare for tougher economic
policies in the new year, the
massage was deliver through his minister of finance Kemi Adeosun, his words ; the fuel subsidy appear
to have vast modest benefits for the majority of the citizens, but the cost are
quite high, there is a strong tendency or the cost of fuel subsidy to increase
over time as increasing domestic demand for petrol out spaces growth in oil
output or revenues. Vanguard (2012). Some of the staunch opponents of the fuel
subsidy withdrawal by Jonathan administration are the leader of the party in
power today and supporters of president Buhari who has unleashed torment on us.
Bola Tinubu a leader of APC had on January
10,2012 accused the Jonathan presidency
of shrinking its social contract with the people by suddenly removing fuel
subsidy. He went on to opine that "if subsidy must be removed at all, it
must never be at one fell swoop. Rather it must be calibrated phases, on which
the promise gains are measured and confirmed before moving into the next phase
of removal" Now they did it in one fell swoop.
In Bola Tinubu's argument against subsidy
removal in 2012, he said first government need to clean up and throw or do away
with corruption in the NNPC. Nigerian national petroleum corporation, then
proceed to lay the foundation for a mass transit system in the railways and
road network with long term bond
and," he added fully develop the energy sector towards revitalizing Nigerians economy and easy the burdens, of
any subsidy removal may have on the people" one wonders whether
these conditions have been met before the present government headed by him Bola Tinubu decided to remove subsidy
completely.
President Bola Tinubu administration was
the most notorious in unleashing reign of terror to the Nigerians without
following the process advocated by him, his singular action now transforms the
country into a quagmire. What was anti people then is now pro people, the
insincerity extends to all the homilies on the benefit of the removal of fuel
subsidy which the people have been awash over the years. It obvious for a
leader to support what he had earlier condemned just because he is in power
now. that is opportunistic and selfishness. If the fuel subsidy removal was
judiciously allowed in 2012. Nigerians
and the economy would have adjusted to it long ago, its wouldn't have been as
painful as it is today, Vanguard, (2012). Despite all these adjustment and
complete removal there is no visible benefits on infrastructure in the country,
Rather, the corrupt rulers have had more chances of stealing the country's
wealth and resources.
THEORITICAL FRAMEWORK
This study examines the politics of
subsidy removal in Nigeria in which political leadership and decision makers
are assumed to act on public interest. Therefore, public choice theory would
serve as its theoretical framework of analysis.
Public choice applies the hypothesis
and method of economics to the analysis of political situations and behavior,
public originated as a distinctive field of specialization a half century ago
its proponent includes; Keneth Arrow, Duncan Black, Gordon Tullock, Anthony Downs, William
Niskanen and others. Opined that, public choice has revolutionized the study of
democratic decision-making processes. Buchanan and Tullock (1962). Viewed,
public choice as “politics without romance”. According to them the wishful
thinking displayed presumes that participant in the political sphere aspire to
promote the common good. Shughart (2008), n0tes that in the conventional
“public interest” view, public officials are portrayed as benevolent “public
servant” who faithfully carrying out the “will of the people”. Intending to
public business, voters, politicians and policy-makers who supposedly somehow
expected to rise above their parochial concerns. Public choice like the
economic model of rational behavior on which it rest assumes that people are
guided chiefly by their own self interest and more importantly that motivations
of people in the political process are not different from other people in the
sphere of life.
Public theory is useful to study of
subsidy and national development in Nigeria because it appears to capture the
motivation and interests of the contending parties on the subsidy policy in the
country. While the political class represented the ruling class holds that,
discontinuing the subsidy policy would ensure efficiency in the management of
national oil revenue and promotes infrastructural development, while the masses
on the other hand believe that the policy will estrange them further.
Therefore, public choice theory enabled the researcher to carryout the research
without aligning to any emotional persuasions, the impacts of the increment in
pump prices as it appears presently to negatively impacted on house-hold
livelihood, economic activities and however raises national income positively
in the country. Indeed, public choice theory captures the roles and the
reasoning of all the actors involved in the fuel subsidy process in Nigeria.
METHODOLOGY
This study employed qualitative
method of data collection, therefore relies basically or heavily on table
review. relevant data drawn from documents, were analyzed the format of
analysis is largely qualitative Which includes; text books, journals, news-papers,
magazines and event documents, accordingly thematic process which involve
coding and sorting of data is used. Also, content analysis was used as a form
of qualitative data analysis.
FUEL SUBSIDY AND HOUSE HOLD
LIVELIHOOD
The torment of escalating petrol
prices and the consequence surge in the cost of everything have played
Nigerians into a precipitous decline in quality of life. this dire situation is
exacerbated by insensitive, almost mocking remarks from those responsible for
inflicting this pain. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu apply nicknamed
"T.pain" recently stated that Nigeria will appreciate the wisdom of
his "reforms". such a statement is so callous and mendacious (Tribune
12\2024).
This statement is callous because
these "reforms" literally destroying the livelihood of millions and
causing deaths of many. What possible benefit could the deceased derive from
economic reform that precipitated their untimely demised? The statement was
mendacious because as evidence by the history of Structural Adjustment Program
(SAP) in Nigeria and in the experience of other nations implementing similar
neoliberal economic reforms such policies invariably evade the middle class in
the society which is present situation in Nigeria. The middle class has been
evaded, the only existence is the have and have not. these exacerbate poverty
among the lower classes, yet please the market thereby benefitting the upper
classes almost without exception, neoliberal policies such as the elimination
of subsidies, deregulation, reduction in social spending and physical austerity
exacerbate economic inequality and hinder sustainable development in developing
economies. These policies, often benefit large corporation and the wealthy
which creates in equitable concentration of wealth in the hands of few and
widows the chasing between the rich and the poor.
Thus, that contemporary Nigeria
inhospitable as inflation is on the rise at daily basis, poverty bedeviled
society everywhere insecurity on the alarming rate, death, mass exodus to the
neighboring countries and high profile corruption by the high ranking official
recently a publication by the news paper indicate the high level of inflation
in the country putting Sokoto state as the highest with 50.47% followed by
Gombe state 44.09% Yobe state 43.57% Jigawa 43.17% Borno 42.54% Edo state
42.52% Kebbi 41.2% Abia state 40.9% cross river 40.83% and Enugu 40.44% in the
year of 2024 (daily trust 15 sep. 2024)
The rate in which poverty is on the
rise is worrisome due to low income wages and small -scale business closing
everywhere, high cost of energy hindered their production capacity these create
precarious situation, leading to in some cases death as people can no longer
afford their meals and medications. This quasi-research results found out that
insecurity is on the rise resulting from these un-anticipated situations.
Insecurity is not political but metamorphoses to social problem the criminal
group are expanding their network engaging even the younger children into the
criminal activities of kidnapping, banditry, daylight phone snatching and so
on. These situations persist because they believe it to be their source of
livelihood. Furthermore. the research indicate the mass exodus by the menial
workers and small scale businesses to the neighboring countries for good jobs
and business due to the fall of value of Nigeria currency the naira occasioned
by policy of fuel subsidy removal at a time by president Bola Tinubu
Administration which appeared to the insincere, callous and mendacious these
Tinubu policies create also the mass exodus of foreign company in the country,
the absence of security, social and physical infrastructure and poverty led to
the majority of the community cannot longer afford to purchase what foreign
business are producing in(2023) .And also denied the authority concern the
restriction and control of the inflow of humans, goods and services which is
fundamental for securing lives and properties.
Subsidy removal yielded no positive
impact, given the culture of economic corruption entrenched within the upper
echelons of power, most of the funds saved through subsidy removal tariff
increases intensified taxation and cuts in social programs will likely be
misappropriated. The government will still resort to borrowing from the world
bank and IMF to finance its operation as in the case of previous administration
of president Buhari and presently president Tinubu. We are already witnessing
this phenomenon. Despite massive inflows of cash into government corfers, no
new projects are being constructed or even initiated, only the fraudulent
lagos-calabar coastal highway impact government of all level questionable.
CONCLUSTION
Nigerian government had for many
years been removing subsidy, every removal of subsidy and announcement had
generated protest from the people with the last one titled end bad governance
because of its negative impact on the people. The question that the government
need to provide answer for is whether government is simply interested in
removing subsidy to channel the proceed realized from subsidy removal to
finance her projects or deregulate the petroleum industry in other to stimulate
investment and create jobs (Nwosu 2012) or simply the fuel subsidy removal is
for the greedy elites and kleptocrats to generate more funds and siphon them
for self-enrichment as it appeared to be
the situation now.
Because all evidence clearly shows
that these policy are monumental failure, today local producers would not be
able to supply his product to the market even if he does the citizens cannot
afford it as their purchasing power cannot longer sustain the high level of
inflation in the market subsidy removal has showed that Nigeria is a country of
paradox ,how can an oil producing country pay more for fuel which is found in
abundance in the country as the totality of citizens life's depends on the oil
energy. In the final analysis, the study argues successive government
collaborate with their officials and exploit their own people, this explain why
despite the contribution of abundant natural oil resources to the Nigeria
economy over 75% of citizenry lives in object poverty occasioned by the
notorious failed policy of president Bola Ahmed Tinubu that creates more jobs
loses, poor infrastructural facilities ,wide spread insecurity and more
precarious situation these are evidently clear and accompanied the subsidy removal in Nigeria. The study
finds out that fuel subsidy removal both on long and short term have affected
many households negatively. It has an adverse effect that reduces the
purchasing power of many household. Thus, it interrupted the production capacity
both on agriculture and essential commodity which creates social biases widely
making criminal activities as source of livelihood. Finally, it is observed
that, government must Fast track the turn-around maintenance of the country's
own refineries and encourage building new ones not to engage in sabotage just
as the case in Dangote refinery. The Nigeria government must also put in place
transparent system for monitoring the use of fuel subsidy program that the
citizen could scrutinized and reduce expenditure. Fuel subsidy removal should
not be an instantaneous decision without concrete measures In place to cushion
its effect on the citizen, government should regulate transport and marketers
for the production activities an ensure the stoppage of smuggling and possibly
constitute committee of expert that will visit other advanced countries across
the world to study and borrow their idea of subsidy program.
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