Population Dynamics and Sustainable Development in Nigeria: Environmental and Policy Implications

Cite this article as: Akinokun, R. A. (2026). Population dynamics and sustainable development in Nigeria: Environmental and policy implications. Sokoto Journal of Linguistics and Communication Studies (SOJOLICS), 2(1), 560-568. https://doi.org/10.36349/sojolics.2026.v02i01.046

By

Rilwan Akintayo AKINOKUN

Department of Demography and Social Statistics,

UsmanuDanfodiyoUniversity, Sokoto

E-mail: akinokunridwan@gmail.com

+234(0)8060070338

Abstract

Despite the high fertility we are witnessing in Nigeria, the country is still undergoing demographic transition towards fertility reduction. This paper was aimed at assessing issues revolving around gender and demographic dynamics as they relate with the achievement of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Nigeria; most especially in the human development index (HDI). It was deduced from discussions thatlike other African countries, several factors have contributed to the sustained high fertility level in Nigeria. These factors include child and infant mortality rate, early childbearing which has prolonged the range of childbearing extending across almost all of the reproductive life span of female and male, universal and early marriage, high social values placed on childbearing and low use of contraception. These factors have impeded the achievement of some of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Nigeria. It was concluded and recommended that the Nigerian government, through its universal basic education programme of ensuring quality education for the less privileged, ensuring good health and well-being of the sustainable development goals, and promoting gender equality will go a long way in reducing the high fertility rate we are experiencing in Nigeria through prolonging the age at marriage of women, reducing mortality rate and improving women participation in the labour force thereby improving the living conditions of the people in general which is the demographic dividend every country is always aspiring for through the demographic transition.

Keywords: Development, Dynamics, Population, Sustainable, Nigeria

1.0 Introduction

Despite the high fertility we are witnessing in Nigeria, the country is still undergoing demographic transition towards fertility reduction. Nigeria fertility behaviour must be understood in the context of kinship, parenthood, family and children which are often intertwined with how people survive in a political economy organised around patriarchal family system; where the husband is the primary bread winner in most Nigerian cultures. Despite the fact that fertility transition is commonly associated with modernisation processes and development, most Nigerians succumb to the various pressures on fertility reduction due to failed economy, personal hardships and failed development (Abednigo& Ebenezer 2022).

Sustained fertility transition has begun in Nigeria.Fertility behaviour is conditioned by both social and biological factors.Like other African countries, several factors have contributed to the sustained high fertility levels in Nigeria. These factors include child and infant mortality rate; since fertility is responding to mortality in the demographic transition, early childbearing which has prolonged the range of childbearing extending across almost all of the reproductive life span of female and male, universal and early marriage, high social values placed on childbearing and low use of contraception are some of the factors responsible for high fertility rate in Nigeria despite the fact that the country is currently witnessing reduction in fertility (Feyisetan& Bankole, 2009).

1.1 Population Dynamics and Sustainable Development in Nigeria

Population of a particular area usually have effect on the environment of that particular area. An increased population growth rate above the carrying capacity of that particular area may lead to overstretching of the natural resources of that particular area such as land, water, vegetation and so forth. Also, the negative effect of population growth on the environment can be viewed in terms of environmental pollution such as land pollution, pollution of the water bodies, cutting down of timbers thereby leading to green-house effect; that is, depletion of the ozone layerand so forth.In Nigeria, the attendant effect of population has manifested on desertification, oil pollution most especially in the oil producing areas in Nigeria and erosion. Dessert encroachment in the northern region of the country has also been attributed to a large extent to the activities of man in relating with his environment. In order to achieve the sustainability of our natural resources both renewable and no renewable in connection to the increased population growth rate in Nigeria, man need to relate with the environment in a healthy manner and curtail his excessiveness on available natural resources.

The sustainable development goals (SDGs) has provisions on man’s relation with its environment in order to sustain the environmental natural resources such as wildlife, vegetation, water bodies and so forth. Goal 13 of the sustainable development goals focused on climate action; that is, reducing green-house effect that has resulted to global warming and melting of ices in the arctic region, Goal 6 of the sustainable development goals is on clean water and sanitation in order to preserve our water bodies and reduce unhealthy relationship of man in polluting our water bodies, reduce environmental erosion and flooding through sanitation, Goal 7 of the sustainable development goals is on affordable and clean energy; most especially as regarding our renewable energies such as trees, Goal 11 is on sustainable cities and communities in order to sustain our growing cities in relation with its environmental carrying capacity, Goal 14 focused on life below water; believing that there are a lot of natural benefits we can derive from our seas and oceans that are untapped, Goal 15 focused on life on land in order to minimise land pollution, flooding and so forth, and Goal 12 focused on responsible consumption and production, proposing that as we consume our renewable natural resources such as vegetation we replace them such as tree planting (UN, 2015).

The argument of whether high population rate may translate to development or not is a two-way argument. Some scholars posited that population, when well utilized may usher in development. Generally, population growth rate has implications on economic and social development of that particular area. Population has the tendency of affecting development in Nigeria through human congestion has it is witnessed in cities like Lagos; depletion of natural resources such as deforestation, weather modification such as global warming through the depletion of the ozone layer that is; green-house effect, increasing unemployment, and environmental degradation. Between 1960 and 2021, there was an increase of population in Nigeria from 45.14 million to 213.40 million people in Nigeria.This translates to 372.8 percent growth in population within 61 years (NPC, 2018).

2.0 Literature Review

This chapter discussed fertility transition, mortality transition and urban transition in relation with the sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Nigeria. The discussion is handled in subsequent paragraphs below:

2.1 Fertility Transition and Sustainable Development in Nigeria

The high rate of fertility in Nigeria despite the consistent decline in fertility can be attributed to the momentum population in Nigeria with a broad based age structure which may hinder the achievement of some of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) such as Goals 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of poverty reduction, zero hunger, good health and well-being, quality education, gender equality, reduced inequality, and sustainable cities and communities respectively.Geoffrey (2009) argued that by law of demographic transition, fertility naturally declines in response to falling child mortality; so that if the health and living conditions of the people is improved, there will be reduction in child and infant mortality rate which will invariable lead to fertility reduction thereby actualising the sustainable development goals of poverty reduction, zero hunger, good health and well-being of the people. He suggested erosion of patriarchal family structure which will invariably give more autonomy for the female, promote gender equity and reduce inequality in the society which is Goals 5 and 10 of the sustainable development goals. Achievement of female autonomy, and improved gender equity will also serve as supplements on government efforts towards encouraging the use ofmodern methods of birth control and family planning.

Despite fertility decline, Nigeria has been witnessing plague population explosion since independence due to some factors that need to be addressed by individuals and government most especially on fertility desires. In developing countries, the pace of fertility decline is lower around year 2000 when compared to the mid-1990s.More than half of the countries in the transition stage in sub-Saharan countries have stalled fertility transition. The answer to this stalled fertility transition can be attributed to economic, political and cultural factors that might have been acting as moderating factors in the cause-effect relationship thereby hindering the fertility measures of the sustainable development goals of 2 children per woman; thereby having an overall negative effect on the achievement of the sustainable development goals in Nigeria, most especially Goals 1 and 2 of poverty reduction and zero hunger respectively (Abednigo& Ebenezer, 2022).

Reproductive technologies have helped in bypassing obstacles involved in achieving pregnancy by the conventional methods thereby making it possible for childbirth and pregnancy to occur where otherwise it wouldn’t have. This may probably be one of the factors that might account for the stalled fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. Millions of infertile couples and other similar categories have utilized this improved technology in achieving their fertility desires since 1978 and this has resulted to over 10 million births globally including Nigeria. It has paved way for more number of live births through test-tube babies which have given rise to alteration of the fertility transition globally even though assisted reproductive technologies are still been confronted with economic, socio-cultural and environmental factors in the society. As long as this factor exist, the influencing effect will persist in terms of affecting the fertility transition in sub-Saharan African countries most especially Nigeria; hence affecting the actualisation of the sustainable development goals.Cultural reorientation and social welfare schemes will help in addressing the forces that place high value on children thereby forcing couples to have child birth even through artificial reproductive technologies (Aondoaseer&Dewua 2020).

2.2 Mortality Transition and Sustainable Development in Nigeria

Mortality transition is the first transition needed for fertility transition to follow. In demographic transition, fertility responds to mortality. If mortality declines, fertility will follow suit in declining. Conversely, if fertility increase, mortality will follow suit in increasing; so that the theory simply portrays a transition from high fertility and mortality levels (with virtually zero natural growth rate) to low fertility and mortality levels and at extreme cases, more declining fertility than mortality leading to negative natural growth rate. It is with this back drop that it is very important to witness mortality transition earlier for Nigeria and other African countries to experience fertility transition. Obviously, Nigeria is still experiencing high mortality rate most especially maternal and child mortality rates variants.

The sustainable development goal (SDG) of achieving good health and well-being most especially of the women will go a long way in reducing maternal and child mortality rates through improved maternal and child health care services; so that if mortality rates across all variants reduce, fertility reduction will follow suit thereby leading to quality education since the number of children to cater for would have reduced in relation to couples’ income.Also, gender equity will improve, inequality of all dimensions will reduce, and zero poverty and hunger will follow suit. It is with this backdrop that it is necessary for the Nigerian government to intensify efforts on maternal and child health care services in the northern part of the country due to the high prevalence rate of maternal and child mortality coupled with religious and cultural factors prevalent in the regionthat may hinder the achievement of the sustainable development goals in the region and Nigeria in totality.

Nigeria need to improve on maternal health of its citizens across regions in pursuance of the millennium development goal 5, to improve maternal health which is also in accordance with the sustainable development goal 3 to ensure good health and well-being of the citizens. This will go a long way in reducing child mortality rate in the country which is Goal 4 of the millennium development goals (MDGs). This is because maternal and child mortality rate is still high across all regions in the country which may have attendant consequences of affecting the achievement of the sustainable development goals in Nigeria most especially regarding the eradication of hunger and poverty in the country of the millennium and sustainable development goals.

Nigeria is still experiencing one of the highest maternal mortality rates globally; implying the country is still lacking in achieving some of the millennium development goals of improved maternal health, Goal 5 and reduced child mortality, Goal 4 of the millennium development goals and of the sustainable development goal of enhancing good health and well-being, Goal 3.An increase in maternal mortality rate from 411 to 11,137 per 100,000 live births with eclampsia and pre-eclampsia is the leading cause of such increase of maternal deaths in the state which was estimated at 29.63 percent. Shortage of manpower and inadequate medical facilities in managing the rising number of referred obstetric emergencies are some of the causes. Adequate preparations need to be done before upgrading a hospital to higher levels to enable it cope with the numerous challenges of referred obstetric emergency cases. It was with this backdrop that the specialist hospital where the retrospective data for the study was collected upgraded to a teaching hospital (Olusegun et al., 2021;Ezugwuet al., 2009).

Out of 16,587 patients admitted under review, 1,262 accounting for 7.61 percent died in emergency department even before treatment. Most deaths occurred less than 24 hours of admission. The most common cause of such deaths is stroke. The burden of death was highest among the younger age group, 20-45 years. High mortality rate in Nigeria is not only limited to maternal and child mortality. Elderly people are also facing high mortality rate despite the general decline in mortality rate in Nigeria. Lack of adequate medical facilities and personnel might have contributed to high mortality rate across virtually all age groups in Nigeria, which is a pointer that much is still left to be desired towards achieving the sustainable development goals on reducing the high prevalence of mortality rates across all age groups most especially Goal 3 of the sustainable development goals regarding good health and well-being (Olusegun et al., 2021).

Globally, stroke is the leading cause of mortality. It is likely to get worse in developing countries in future years based on the World Health Organisation (WHO) projection. With the scourge of HIV/AIDS and other communicable diseases, Nigeria stands the risk in loosing most of his human resources and material resources to death and battling with such diseases which may hinder sustainable development in Nigeria. The prevalence of stroke was 1.14 per 1,000 with the 30-day fatal case as high as 40 percent. The high rate can be attributed to lack of funding and lack of high-quality research. Prevention still remains key in reducing the rate of the disease in Nigeria given the two factors highlighted (Kolawole 2008). This view was also supported by Remi & Dietrich (2019) in a study on urban mortality transition suggesting that industrialisation, family planning programmes, development of infrastructures and institutions are very essential in slowing down mortality and other problems associated with the scourge of urbanisation in developing countries and enhancing sustainable development. This will lead us to the third objective of this paper:

2.3 Urban Transition and Sustainable Development in Nigeria

Urban transition is that component of demographic transition where rural-urban migration; that is, urbanisation will be transited to urban-rural due to even development. This means that infrastructures and facilities urban dwellers are enjoying will also be available in the rural areas thereby reducing over congestion of the cities; that is, urbanisation, thereby sustaining development in the cities. This is in conformation with the sustainable development goals, Goal 11 which is based on sustainable cities and communities and Goal 9 which is titled on industry, innovation and infrastructure.

The continent of Africa is in a midst of urban transition and getting the transition right is very critical towards sustainable development. The continent’s urbanisation growth rate is forecasted at 1.1 percent per year with the continent’s urban population growing at about 3.3 percent per year. With this growth rate in urban population and cities, Africa’s urban population will have the tendency of increasing by 150 million which will have a negative effect of economic difficulties and may reduce rural-urban migration thereby ushering in the second stage of the transition. Government response to the challenge by discouraging rural-urban migration may not yield positive results if there is continuous development of infrastructural facilities and basic social amenities at the expense of the rural areas. To this effect, Goal 11 of the sustainable development goals with title: sustainable cities and communities and Goal 9 on industry, innovation and infrastructural across all communities need to be pursued towards ensuring even development and minimising rural-urban migration in developing counties most especially Nigeria (Gordon et al., 2009).

Urbanization in sub-Saharan is not excessive relative to other continents experiences. Internal migration; that is, rural-urban migration to be precise is not only the main cause of growth in urban cities. Lack of internal migration does not necessarily lead to urban poverty. Urban transition in sub-Saharan Africa should not only be seen as management challenge but also as an opportunity for economic and socio-economic advancement; thereby viewing urban areas as an underutilized resource where financial, physical and intellectual capital are concentrated. It is very critical to properly understand how this resource can be better utilized towards poverty reduction agendas, national growth and sustainable development. Despite the prospects of urbanisation, the rate of growth of urban areas in sub-Sahara still poses a lot of management tasks most especially in secondary cities that are experiencing the large influx of internal migration (Christine, 2006). 

World’s fastest growing cities are now found in developing countries which are often referred to as low-income countries through large flux of rural-urban migration and high natural growth rate.This is often due to the ability of informal urban areas; which are often referred to as slums in absorbing additional population easily than other locations and the preference of people towards living in low mortality areas, probably due to the presence of basic infrastructural facilities and amenities at the expense of the rural areas. This is one of the reasons why one of the sustainable development goals was tailored reducing inequality of all ramifications, promoting innovation and infrastructural development across various communities, geared towards sustainable development in cities and communities, Goal 11 of the sustainable development goals.Industrialisation, institutional development and family planning programmes as effective measures that may be employed in slowing down the growth rate of urbanization; that is, rural-urban migration in developing countries such as Nigeria, thereby making the actualisation of the sustainable development goals in Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African countries possible (Remi & Dietrich 2019).

Urbanisation in Nigeria is not only peculiar to known cities such as Lagos, Port-Harcourt and Kano alone. Other emerging cities such as Kaduna, Abuja and Ibadan are now experiencing urbanization.Kaduna metropolis has been witnessing some structural changes in its population, physical form, social composition and economic changes over the last century due to urban transition and that the process has shaped and modified the urban environment due to its transition. Urban development in Kaduna is attributed to two stages of urban transition: Colonial urbanisation during the European colonisation and Post-Colonial urbanisation that took place after independence. Each of the two stages of transition in the area has led to changes in the metropolis in terms of urban population growth, political development, and socio-economic development and settlement patterns in the metropolis (Saleh et al., 2013).

3.0 Theoretical Framework

The theoretical framework used for this study is the Demographic Transition Theory (DTT). The demographic transition theory explains how population of a particular transits from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality. It is made up of six basic transitions: fertility transition, mortality transition, mobility transition, ageing transition, urban transition, family and household transition.

4.0 Methodology

The methodology used for this paper was in-depth review of scholarly papers and articles based on the objectives of the paper. The search engine used for this paper was google scholar. The key words used for the electronic search were in accordance with the objectives of the study. Meaning and definition of concepts relating to: population, environment and development were accessed from the internet. Development,environmental and policy implications of population growth were assessed based on the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and how these goals were achieved in Nigeria.

5.0 Discussion

Rapid population growth may be adverse to human health and environment through pollution, malnutrition, congestion in living conditions as it is in urban areas and pressure on health care facilities thereby affecting living conditions of people negatively. According to Jackson & Endurance (2017), the rapid rate of population growth in Nigeria over the years has led pressures on the nation’s environmental resources which are evident on soil erosion, flooding, desertification and oil pollution in the oil producing states of the country. They stressed that if the present state of environmental pollution is not checked; it will impede the actualisation of the sustainable development goals most especially on hunger, poverty and food security. They recommended that policy makers need to adopt multi-dimensional and cross-sectional approaches on population and environmental issues in order to curtail environmental degradation and enhance the achievement of the sustainable development goals in Nigeria.

The high rate of fertility in Nigeria despite the consistent decline in fertility can be attributed to the momentum population in Nigeria with a broad-based age structure which may hinder the achievement of some of the sustainable development goals. Understanding the reasons underlining the slow economic growth in developing countries is very fundamental in designing development policies towards addressing the issue. In the same vain, understanding the reasons behind success or otherwise of fertility transition is very essential towards devising policies in advancing such transition most especially in countries where the transition is yet to begun. Fertility interventions in Nigeria have mainly being limited to access to family planning services. There is need to have a broader range of effective interventions for the transition to be more laudable (Aondoaseer&Dewua 2020).

6.0 Conclusion

Due to the various challenges facing the actualisation of some the sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Nigeria such as: rapid population growth rate in Nigeria, poverty, environmental degradation in terms of deforestation, urbanisation, negative effects of activities attributed to extractive industries such as oil drilling, spillage and so forth, the Nigerian government need to put in place policies and programmes that will be tailored towards environmental protection and sustainability geared towards achieving demographic dividend for sustainable development in Nigeria. Also the Nigerian government need to incorporate strategies that will be tailored towards addressing the high fertility rate in Nigeria by expanding access to modern contraceptive methods across the country and by removing the attitudinal, structural, physical and communication barriers related to policies, systems and norms which have been an obstacle in achieving the policy implications in terms of its objectives.

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