Role of Services Sector in Economic Diversification in Nigeria (1984-2023)

Cite this article as: Dauda D., Muhammad H. & Shamsudeen I. (2025). Role of Services Sector in Economic Diversification in Nigeria (1984-2023). Zamfara International Journal of Humanities,3(3), 115-123. www.doi.org/10.36349/zamijoh.2025.v03i03.013

ROLE OF SERVICES SECTOR IN ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION IN NIGERIA (1984-2023)

By

Danlami Dauda
Hafsat Muhammad
Isah Shamsudeen 

Department of Economics
Niger State College of Education, Minna

Abstract: The study examined Role of Services Sector (Real Estate and Finance and Insurance) in Economic Diversification in Nigeria (1984-2023). Given Nigeria's dependence on oil revenue has rendered its economy susceptible to global price volatility. Economic diversification is a critical pathway for reducing this dependency, particularly through the services sector. The research is guide by two objectives, research questions and hypotheses, it employs an ex post facto design using secondary data validated by the World Bank (WB,2024). The dataset includes Nigeria’s Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) as a proxy for economic growth and key service sector indicators, including Finance and Insurance and Real Estate, with Inflation is included as a control variable. Regression analysis conducted via SPSS reveals a significant correlation between Finance and Insurance contributions to GDP (t = 2.385, p = 0.022), Real Estate contributions (t = 4.101, p = 0.000), and GDP growth. Both sectors substantially impact economic growth and diversification. The study recommends that the government should promote private sector investments in service sectors that will enhance and support the agriculture and manufacturing sectors in Nigeria.

Keywords: Real Estate, Financial and insurance, Economic Diversification and Economic growth.

I. Introduction

Economic growth is a core priority for nations worldwide due to its various benefits. Tejvan (2019) found that robust economic growth boosts the overall size of an economy, strengthens fiscal conditions, reduces unemployment, lowers government borrowing, and improves public services. It also stimulates investment, enhances research and development, and alleviates poverty. For emerging economies like Nigeria, sustaining sustainable economic development remains a vital macroeconomic goal. However, Nigeria’s economic growth trajectory from the 1980s to 2021 has been defined by large oscillations, with eighteen instances of falling trends (World Bank, 2022). Negative growth periods, including -1.6% in 2016 and -1.8% in 2020, illustrate the country’s vulnerability to external shocks such as oil price drops and internal difficulties like inadequate diversification, poor infrastructure, and corruption (InfoGuide Nigeria, 2023).

The instability of Nigeria’s economic growth has prompted researching alternate drivers of growth beyond conventional sectors like agriculture and industry. Mukhtar et al. (2021) underlined that technical improvements have limited the labour absorptive capacity of manufacturing, thus complicating the reliance on this sector for job creation and economic progress. This dilemma has pushed many nations, including Nigeria, to pivot towards the service sector as a driver for economic transformation. According to Ghani (2019), the globalization of services offers developing countries unique opportunity to specialize, scale up, and achieve rapid growth, filling gaps that manufacturing can no longer sustain. The service sector is increasingly acknowledged as the lifeline of socio-economic development, contributing considerably to employment, productivity, and GDP growth. In Nigeria, the service sector has emerged as the leading contributor to GDP over the previous decade, accounting for 50.79% of GDP in 2010 and growing to 53% by 2019 (CBN, 2021). Comprising varied sub-sectors such as trade, real estate, financial services, education, and health care, the service sector supports economic diversification efforts, particularly as the government strives to reduce its dependency on oil revenues (Oxford Business Group, 2024).

Ofili (2021) underlined the vital role of the real estate sector in enhancing financial stability and producing employment across diverse skill levels, from architects and engineers to retail workers. Despite problems including bureaucratic impediments and infrastructure limitations, real estate remains one of the most profitable ventures for economic growth and development. Similarly, the information and communication technology (ICT) and financial services sub-sectors are driving innovations that underpin broader economic activities. The digital economy, for instance, has been acknowledged as a major economic driver in Nigeria, improving efficiency and offering new opportunities across sectors (Oxford Business Group, 2024)

Furthermore, the service sector (Real Estate and Finance and Insurance) plays a critical role in addressing some of the structural difficulties afflicting the Nigerian economy. By encouraging more economic resilience, lowering dependence on oil, and developing more diverse income streams, the sector corresponds with the government’s long-term aim of sustainable development (Philip & Semira, 2020). The expanding contributions of services to GDP, particularly through trade, ICT, and professional services, highlight the sector’s potential as a key driver of Nigeria’s economic diversification goal (CBN, 2021).

I.1. Objectives:

1.      To examine the impact of Real Estate sector on Nigeria's GDP growth from 1984 to 2023.

2.      To investigate the contribution of the Finance and Insurance sector to economic growth in Nigeria from 1984 to 2023.

I.2. Research Questions:

1.      What is the impact of Real Estate sector on Nigeria's GDP growth from 1984 to 2023?

2.      What is the contribution of the Finance and Insurance sector to Nigeria's economic growth from 1984 to 2023?

I.3 Hypotheses:

1.      H₀: The Real Estate sector does not significantly impact on Nigeria’s GDP growth from 1984 to 2023.

2.      H₀: The Finance and Insurance sector does not significantly contribute to Nigeria’s economic growth from 1984 to 2023.

II. Literature Review

II.1 Conceptual Clarification

II.1.1 Service Sector

The service sector comprises economic activities that provide non-tangible goods and services to consumers and enterprises, spanning a wide range of sub-sectors. In Nigeria, seven of the 13 sub-service sectors have been prioritized: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services; Health Services; Transport Services; Education Services; Information and Communication Services; Utilities; and Public Administration. These sectors are deliberately focused for their considerable contributions to GDP, employment, and socio-economic growth. The remaining six sub-sectors Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation; Financial and Insurance; Real Estate; and Administrative and Supportive Services—receive comparably less concentration. This prioritizing aligns with the government’s purpose of boosting sectors that directly enhance human capital, infrastructure, and governance (CBN, 2021). The service sector refers to a segment of the economy that provides intangible goods and services to businesses and consumers. This sector includes activities such as trade, transport, education, healthcare, finance, and communication, which play a vital role in supporting economic growth, creating employment opportunities, and improving societal welfare (National Bureau of Statistics (NBS),2021).

II.1.2 Economic Diversification

Economic diversification is essential for Nigeria due to its overreliance on oil revenue, which exposes the economy to global price fluctuations and economic instability (Adeniyi & Omotayo, 2021). Economic diversification involves expanding the range of economic activities in both production and distribution, enhancing economic stability without necessarily increasing output. It plays a crucial role in sustainable development by strengthening an economy’s ability to adapt to resource depletion and global economic fluctuations. Agriculture was the foundation of Nigeria’s economy before the discovery and commercialization of crude oil. In the 1960s, the sector was the largest contributor to GDP, providing over 60% of total output and employing more than 70% of the labor force (Eboh & Oduh, 2020). It fosters technological advancement, social organization, and equity, ensuring long-term stability and fairness for current and future generations (Zhang, n.d.). Economic diversification is the process of broadening the diversity of economic activity inside a country, particularly for resource-dependent developing economies. It entails diminishing reliance on a restricted set of sectors, particularly those dependent on natural resources, and shifting towards more varied industries, such as manufacturing, services, and technology (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) ,2022)

II.1.3 The Role of the Services Sector in Economic Diversification

The Nigerian services sector is one of the fastest-growing in Africa, exhibiting tremendous success even during adverse economic conditions. Over the past few decades, the contribution of services to Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has consistently increased (CBN, 2021). This growth underlines the essential role the sector plays in the country's economic framework. The services sector is sometimes described as the lifeblood of a nation's socio-economic development. According to Philip and Semira (2020), it is a major employer of labour, emphasizing on the creation of services rather than tangible items. Ghani (2019) adds that the globalization of services allows developing countries possibilities to specialize, scale up, and achieve quick growth, presenting viable alternatives beyond traditional manufacturing. Additionally, the increasing relevance of the services sector is corroborated by other experts. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD, 2022), services such as telecommunications, information and communications technology (ICT), and financial services have become important to the economic development of resource-dependent countries. These service sectors are not only vital for economic diversification but also help increase productivity and provide new development prospects.

II.1.4 Finance and Insurance Sector and Economic Diversification

The finance and insurance sector plays a vital role in encouraging economic diversification, particularly in developing nations like Nigeria. As recognized by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN, 2021), this sector is one of the primary contributors to Nigeria's services economy and has undergone significant expansion in recent years. It is made of numerous components, including banking, insurance, investment management, and financial intermediation, all of which are crucial for the efficient allocation of resources across diverse sectors of the economy. The finance and insurance industry helps the smooth operation of the economy by providing crucial financial services that support investment, output, and consumption. It enables firms, especially small and medium-sized organizations (SMEs), access the funding needed for expansion, innovation, and job development. This access to financing is vital for diversifying the economy beyond traditional sectors such as agriculture and oil, enabling the growth of non-oil industries including manufacturing, services, and technology (World Bank, 2020). Furthermore, the finance and insurance sector manage risk through products such as insurance, enabling firms to protect their assets and operations. This generates confidence and stability, which are vital for attracting both domestic and foreign investments. Insurance services also improve resilience, particularly in areas prone to swings and unforeseen catastrophes, such as agriculture and infrastructure development (Odedokun, 2019).

II.1.5 Real-estate Sector and Economic Diversification

Apergis (2021) underlines that real estate is a crucial engine of socio-economic growth across the globe, as it significantly contributes to employment creation, wealth accumulation, and national output. The real estate sector plays a pivotal role in both developed and developing economies by stimulating investment, supporting urbanization, and enhancing infrastructure development. The real estate sector greatly impacts economic growth, with its performance sometimes functioning as a barometer of broader economic health. Empirical studies have revealed that the development of the real estate sector is intricately related to the overall economic development and social stability of a country. For instance, a housing boom can promote household consumption, resulting to a rise in demand for goods and services, which in turn supports GDP growth. The positive impacts of real estate on the economy are not confined to direct growth; they also extend to job creation, improved investment opportunities, and the overall stimulation of other sectors like as construction, banking, and insurance (Zhang and Li, 2020).

II.1.6 Nexus between Finance and Insurance and Real estate

The finance and insurance sectors are vital to the expansion of the real estate market, propelling economic development by providing capital, risk management, and financial services. Financial institutions such as banks and mortgage enterprises encourage real estate transactions through loans and mortgages, enabling construction and promoting economic activity in building, infrastructure, and urban development (Moody, 2023). Finance and insurance stimulate foreign investment and enhance market stability by providing risk mitigation and liquidity, which in turn boosts commercial and residential real estate expansion (Miller, 2020). The banking and insurance sectors enable the proper operation of the real estate industry. Financial institutions supply the required liquidity and money for development, while insurance protects against the dangers inherent in real estate transactions. This symbiotic relationship maintains economic stability, drives real estate development, and contributes to broader economic growth (Ling & Archer, 2019).

II.2 Empirical Review

Effiong, U., & Okon, J. I. (2021) explored the Service Sector-Led Growth Relationship: The Case of Nigeria, covering the period 1981 to 2019. Data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The study was guided by three relevant objectives and employed the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Granger Causality test, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach, bounds test for cointegration, and vector error correction mechanism to analyse the data. The findings revealed a bidirectional causality between the service sector and economic growth in Nigeria. The authors recommended stimulating industrialization as the major pathway for enhancing the contributions of the service sector to the economy.

Cornelius, T., & Innocent (2023) conducted an Empirical Analysis of the Impact of the Service Sector on Economic Growth in Nigeria using data from the CBN Statistical Bulletin for the period 1990–2021. The study applied the ADF unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test, and Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) technique. Findings showed that variables became stationary after first differencing, while the cointegration test identified five cointegrating equations. It was discovered that Real Estate (RE), Public Administration (PA), and Financial Institutions (FI) had positive and significant long-run impacts on economic growth in Nigeria. Conversely, Air Freight Services (AFS) and Airway Equipment Rental (AER) showed positive but insignificant impacts, while Postal Services (PST) exhibited a negative and insignificant effect. The study recommended increased investment in real estate and the expansion of public administration initiatives by the government.

Ola, K. O., & Ifada, F. I. (2023) analyzed Four Major Service Industries and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis using data from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The series were subjected to unit root and cointegration tests. Results from the ADF test indicated that all variables were stationary at first difference, and the Johansen Cointegration test confirmed long-run relationships among the variables. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Dynamic OLS estimation techniques revealed that trade and real estate were key drivers of economic growth during the study period. Pairwise interactions between trade, financial institutions, insurance, and real estate were found to significantly contribute to economic growth. The authors recommended policies to promote diversification, ensuring the spillover effects of trade and real estate benefit other economic sectors.

Iqbal, J., Salam, M., & Nosheen, M. (2019) examined The Determinants of Services Sector Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis, comparing selected developed and developing economies. The study used static and dynamic panel data estimation techniques. Findings indicated that GDP per capita and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) played significant roles in driving service sector growth in both developed and developing countries. To verify the robustness of these results, the study introduced interaction terms for explanatory variables. The findings remained consistent, confirming the importance of GDP per capita and FDI in service sector growth, both with and without interaction effects.

II.3 Theoretical Framework

Arthur Lewis developed the Structural Change Theory in 1954 and Simon Kuznets expanded it in 1955. It explains how economic transformation occurs when labour and capital are reallocated from traditional sectors like agriculture to more modern, high-productivity sectors like industry and services. This theory emphasizes how crucial these structural changes are to attaining sustainable economic growth and diversification as nations move away from reliance on the primary sector and toward a more resilient and balanced economy. Such structural change is essential for sustainable economic growth, according to Rodrik (2021), since it enables countries to transition from low-productivity to high-productivity sectors, promoting resilience and diversity. The contribution of the services sector to economic diversification in Nigeria, where subsectors like real estate and finance and insurance have emerged as important engines of economic expansion, is a direct application of this principle. In a nation that has historically relied on oil exports, the growth of the services sector represents a crucial phase in structural change. Through resource reallocation and growth promotion in these high-value sectors, Nigeria can lessen its oil dependency, improve macroeconomic stability, and aid in larger attempts at economic diversification.

III.      Methodology

The study employs an ex post facto research design using secondary data from 1984 to 2023. The dataset, sourced and validated by the World Bank (WB, 2024), includes data on Nigeria’s Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) as a proxy for economic growth and key indicators from the services sector, namely Finance and Insurance and Real Estate. To address Nigeria's economic diversification, macroeconomic conditions, such as inflation, are included as a control variable. A regression statistical technique was adopted for data analysis using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS).

The regression model for this study is adapted and modified from the research work of (Adegbite & Olayemi (2018) and extended to assess the role of the services sector in Nigeria's economic diversification. The functional form of the model is expressed as:

Where:

GDPT​= Real Gross Domestic Product at time t (dependent variable)

Value added by Finance and Insurance at time t (independent variable)

Value added by Real Estate at time t (independent variable)

Inflation rate at time t (control variable, capturing macroeconomic conditions)

Constant term (intercept)

Coefficients for respective variables

 Random error term (captures unexplained variation)

This model assesses the extent to which value-added contributions from the finance and insurance and real estate sub-sectors drive Nigeria’s economic growth (RGDP), while controlling for inflation to account for macroeconomic stability. The coefficients  quantify the magnitude and direction of these relationships, highlighting the role of these sub-sectors in economic diversification and providing insights into their relative importance for sustainable growth.

IV.       Result and Discussion

Table 1: Descriptive Statistics for on Impact of Service sectors (Finance and Insurance, Real Estate) on GDP Growth Rate in Nigeria.

Variable	M (Mean)	SD (Standard Deviation)	N
Annual GDP Growth Rate	34,932.07	21,065.29	40
Contribution of Finance and Insurance to GDP	1,437.58	774.42	40
Contribution of Real Estate to GDP	147.12	83.30	40
Annual Inflation Rate	19.22	16.78	40

Source: World Bank (WB), 2024.

The dataset used for the regression model consisted of 40 observations. The standard deviation was 21,065.29. The mean of the Annual GDP Growth Rate (%) was 34,932.07. That's what the descriptive statistics say. The Finance and Insurance Contribution to GDP (%) had a mean of 1,437.58 while the Real Estate Contribution to GDP (%) had a mean of 147.12 and a standard deviation of 83.30. The annual inflation rate was 19.22 on average, with a standard deviation of 16.78. The data's distribution and variability across the model's several variables are clearly seen thanks to these statistics.

Table 2 Regression Results: Impact of service sectors (Finance and Insurance and Real Estate) on GDP Growth Rate in Nigeria.

Model	Unstandardized Coefficients	Standardized Coefficients	T	Sig.	Correlations	Collinearity Statistics
(Constant)	-327.786	-	-0.066	0.948	-	-
Contribution of Finance and Insurance to GDP (%)	9.141	0.336	2.385	0.022	0.777	0.369
Contribution of Real Estate to GDP (%)	144.826	0.573	4.101	0.000	0.829	0.564
Annual Inflation Rate (%)	42.276	0.034	0.377	0.709	-0.172	0.063

Source: World Bank (WB), 2024.

Significance Level (Sig.) p < 0.05: considered statistically significant

Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) >10: Indicates strong multicollinearity

The regression model shown that, there is a significant correlation between the Annual GDP Growth Rate and the percentage contributions of Finance and Insurance and Real Estate to GDP (t = 2.385, p = 0.022 and t = 4.101, p = 0.000, respectively). Although real estate also contributes significantly, the finance and insurance industries have a beneficial impact on GDP growth. In this model, the Annual Inflation Rate (%) as a control variable has no discernible effect on GDP growth (t = 0.377, p = 0.709). The VIF values show that there are no multicollinearity problems, indicating that there is not an excessive correlation between the predictors.

IV.1    Discussion of Findings

This study's findings revealed a significant correlation between the contributions of Finance and Insurance to GDP (%) (t = 2.385, p = 0.022) and Real Estate to GDP (%) (t = 4.101, p = 0.000) and the Annual GDP Growth Rate. The Finance and Insurance sectors were demonstrated to substantially impact GDP growth, while Real Estate also significantly contributed. These findings correspond with prior research that underscores the importance of these industries in fostering economic growth. The research conducted by Ola and Ifada (2023) indicated that trade and real estate were significant contributors to economic growth during the analysed period. Their findings underlined the considerable contributions of pairwise relationships, particularly between trade and finance, finance and real estate, and trade and real estate, to economic growth. Ukaid (2020) emphasized the crucial significance of the services sector in fostering economic growth, confirming its position as the largest contributor to Nigeria's GDP. Ofili (2021) provides additional data underscoring the pivotal significance of the Real Estate industry, identifying it as a significant contributor to national GDP. This perspective is backed by Moydom (2023), which underlined the multidimensional impact of real estate on economic growth, stating that its influence extends beyond property transactions to numerous other economic sectors. Additionally, Kipilimba (2019) employed regression analysis to reveal a favourable association between interest rates, inflation, transaction costs, housing demand, and economic growth. These findings further corroborate the interdependence of economic forces in influencing growth trajectories. Finally, Akintola, Oji-Okoro, and Itodo (2020) reported that financial deepening, banking system liquidity, and the all-share index had favourable and significant long-term benefits on real production growth. However, their studies also indicated that exchange rate spreads were inversely connected to real output growth, illustrating the intricacies of financial sector contributions to GDP.

V.        Conclusion

The finding of this study illustrated the important contributions of the real estate and finance and insurance sectors to Nigeria’s GDP growth over the period of 40years. These sectors not only help economic diversification but also address fundamental structural concerns within the Nigerian economy, such as reliance on oil and limited employment generation. Real estate plays a crucial role in encouraging economic stability through infrastructure development, employment generation, and urbanization, while the financial and insurance industry boosts economic growth by facilitating investments, managing risks, and boosting market stability. The interplay between these sectors emphasizes their combined potential as engines of sustainable economic growth, fitting with Nigeria’s broader goals of diversification and resilience against economic shocks.

VI.      Recommendations

The following recommendations were formulated based on the findings of the study.

1.      The government should promote private sector investments in service sectors by improving the business environment, financial services and infrastructure to support agriculture and manufacturing in Nigeria..

2.      The government should establish a conducive atmosphere to facilitate the growth of the Real Estate sector in Nigeria.

3.      The government should enact economically feasible financial reforms to stabilize and enhance the reliability and efficiency of the financial sector.

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